2023 - Make or Break for Hailie Deegan?
Is 2023 the season that defines Hailie Deegan?
In two-full time seasons in the NASCAR Trucks Series, it’s fair to say that the jury is still out on young Hailie Deegan. With just three top-10 finishes in 46 starts, and finishes of 17th and 21st in the points standings, Deegan’s career couldn’t have started with any less flair.
To be honest, Deegan entered the sport with expectations that few drivers could carry, male or female. After Danica Patrick flamed out in her final season at Stewart-Haas Racing, NASCAR eagerly looked for the next female that could capture the fandom and excitement that NHRA drivers like Erica Enders, Leah Pruett, or Brittany Force have had in their respective motorsports alongside the ability to win and compete for championships. Deegan now carries that torch, whether she wants to or not.
A Conspicuous Start
When Deegan went on to win three times in two full seasons in the K&N West Series, the match had been struck and her promotion to ARCA and the Trucks Series was all but guaranteed - most likely for Venturni and then Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Inexplicably, in December of 2019, it was announced that Deegan was leaving Toyota to become a Ford developmental driver and would have a home racing for David Gilliland Racing, which had also recently jumped ship from Toyota to Ford.
In hindsight now, teams changing manufacturers doesn’t feel like that much of an outlier now with Gilliland (Tricon) going back to Toyota, ThorSport going from Ford to Toyota and back to Ford in just a handful of seasons, and Kyle Busch Motorsports going from Toyota to Chevrolet as he leaves Joe Gibbs and heads to Richard Childress.
However, Deegan had seen success in her teen years with Toyota, and Toyota Racing Development just casually allowing her to leave before having a chance to race with their premier team… felt odd. Especially, after Deegan went on to win four times in her lone ARCA campaign with David Gilliland Racing in 2020.
With her promotion to the Trucks Series looming in 2021, the sky truly was the limit for the talented young lady.
Two Seasons of Mediocrity
While Deegan and DGR never even scratched the ceiling, they did find the floor plenty of times over the past two seasons. As stated above, in those 46 starts, she’s yet to finish in the top-five, much less lead a single lap and has held an average finish of 20th or worse in these two years.
So… is this a Deegan issue or a DGR issue? If we drill down to her green flag speed rankings, only once did she rank top 10 in green flag speed all season while she had 14 races where her green flag speed ranked 20th or worse. Notably, she began the 2022 season incredibly slow with GFS rankings of 16-32-33-32-24-24-31 in the first seven races of the year.
While a driver can only work with the vehicle they’re given, it’s worth mentioning that DGR did go on to win twice, but that was in the rent-a-ride 17 with Todd Gilliland at Knoxville and Ryan Preece a week later at Nashville. In 10 total starts, Preece graced the top five in seven of those starts and only failed to finish in the top 10 once. It should be noted, SHR was helping to set up these Preece vehicles.
Okay, so what about non-NASCAR Cup Series drivers? In eight starts, Taylor Gray had one top-10 finish and an average finish of 20.5. Meanwhile, in a full season, Tanner Gray did manage to end the year with two top-five results, and six top-10 finishes but had a somewhat similar average finish of 18 with a 15th-place finish in the points.
Do you see the corollary starting to emerge? Perhaps this isn’t as simple as the Hailie Deegan detractors want it to be. DGR equipment could be competitive, as long as it has a talented, experienced driver behind the wheel combined with help from a Cup team. When it was just a young Trucks Series driver, relying on what DGR alone could do for them in the shop and at the track, their true competition was Niece Motorsports and not ThorSport or KBM.
2023 Predictions for Hailie Deegan?
This upcoming year finds Deegan returning for another season in the Trucks Series. However, as DGR/ Tricon makes the leap to Toyota, Deegan slides over to ThorSport who returns to Ford. Lineup-wise, Deegan replaces Christian Eckes at ThorSport who had a fairly productive season in the 98 with eight top-five results and 15 top-10 finishes.
Will Deegan win in the upcoming season? Sure. Yet, the better question is can she win with ThorSport? That answer should be definitely yes but that is to be determined.
In the end - Deegan will probably make the leap to the Xfinity Series in 2024 thanks to Ford and Monster’s backing and hopefully, this upcoming year will see her make more spot starts for SS Green Light. Those races will probably be the true defining light on what trajectory her career will take and not as the fourth fiddle at ThorSport.