Expectations for the 2024 NASCAR Trucks Series
Reasonable expectations for the NASCAR Craftstman Trucks Series in 2024
Recently, a member of the free RaceSheetsDFS Discord asked me an interesting question:
This got my creative juices flowing, and the question being so good, I thought that it deserved a Substack response - both for Trucks and Xfinity.
So, for today, let’s break down just what I think the shift in the Trucks Series will be based on what we know going into 2024.
Trucks Series Headlines
The biggest shift from 2023 to 2024 is twofold and involves two teams in the Chevrolet camp.
First, GMS Racing announced that 2023 would be its last season in the Trucks Series. Despite recent championships with Sheldon Creed in 2020, and Johnny Sauter in 2018, the past few seasons of GMS had felt like a fading team as Grant Enfinger was their only competitive driver while Rajah Caruth and Daniel Dye were usually in the mix for top-15 finishes. Enfinger has found his way to CR7 Motorsports, in a deal that links the team with McAnally Hilgeman Racing, while Dye makes the jump to MHR continuing to utilize the 43 number. Meanwhile, Caruth hasn’t formally announced his plans for next season, but Bob Pockrass has said that these plans do involve Chevy.
The second big announcement was that after fourteen seasons, 322 starts, 100 victories, and two Series titles - Kyle Busch Motorsports had been acquired by Spire Motorsports. Much like KBM in 2023, Spire will run two Trucks this upcoming season; one with Chase Purdy on a full-time basis and another Truck with a rotating cast (that is sure to feature Kyle Busch in five races). Furthermore, Nick Sanchez and Rev Racing will carry over their partnership from KBM to Spire in an identical deal.
Analysis: As stated above, the only real impact the departure of GMS should have is one less driver (Enfinger) in the mix for wins at short venues. Perhaps, the partnership between CR7 and MHR can turn Colby Howard’s old ride into a top-10 contender, but pushing this vehicle for wins feels out of place unless Enfinger has direct access to whatever Christian Eckes is running. The wildcard of Caruth is very intriguing, as speculation has pointed to Caruth continuing his relationship with Hendrick Motorsports in some fashion.
As far as KBM leaving and Spire taking their place, it’s to be determined. Unless Kyle Busch was in one of these trucks, the KBM equipment wasn’t that competitive, and with Spire doing two full-time entries who knows how differently they will run versus their old schedule of sporadic starts at road courses and superspeedway. While they ponied up the money for this team, as well as a third charter on the Cup side, they could simply operate this team as they do in the Cup Series and not be competitive despite adequate funding.
2024 Trucks Series Driver Changes
We’ve already discussed the fallout of GMS but let’s quickly talk about departures and arrivals, of full-time drivers, for this upcoming year:
Zane Smith: leaving to drive the 71 in the Cup Series for Spire
Layne Riggs: takes over the Front Row Motorsports 38 on a multi-year deal
Hailee Deegan: leaving to drive for AM Racing in the Xfinity Series
Jake Garcia: leaves MHR to take over the 13 at ThorSport.
Tyler Ankrum: leaves Hattori for MHR in the 18. Hattori has still not announced a replacement for Ankrum.
Matt Dibenedetto: the most based driver in NASCAR finds himself on the other side of another burnt bridge as he was given his pink slip from Rackley early and still has no ride setup for 2024.
Carson Hocevar: makes the jump from the Niece 41 to drive the 77 for Spire in the Cup Series (expect him to make plenty of starts in the second Spire truck this year).
Bayley Currey: stays at Niece but will race for them on a full-time basis in ‘24.
Thad Moffitt: Richard Petty’s grandson lands a full-time ride with the newly formed Faction 46 racing next season.
Timmy Hill: the 56 gets a full-time driver as Timmy will compete on a full-time basis next season.
Ty Dillon: from being a potential driver in the Kaulig 16 to driving the 25 for Rackley W.A.R., Dillon will compete for the Nashville-based team in 2024.
2024 Predictions
With Enfinger going down a step in performance, and both Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith leaving for the Cup Series, it seems like the championship has been whittled down to mainly a one-horse show; Corey Heim and to a lesser extent Ty Majeski. Both drivers are skilled short-track drivers and if in the show at Phoenix, could easily win their way to a title.
Yes, Ben Rhodes just won his second championship in three seasons, but he managed to do this with just one win all season and being on the right side of chaos in that forgettable Trucks Series championship. A two-time championship should have more than five wins in his last four seasons but this is the trajectory that Rhodes is on; he’ll always finish well, rarely win, and point his way into the championship race. Meanwhile, Heim has five wins in just two full-time seasons (as is on a solid trajectory to being in the Xfinity Series for Joe Gibbs).