Shriners Children's Hospital 500 NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks for Phoenix, March 10
NASCAR Fantasy Live picks for starters and head-to-heads for the Shriners Children's Hospital 500 at Phoenix Raceway, 3-10
For this week, we have a one-mile short oval in Phoenix, Arizona. In 2024, there is also a package change for the Cup Series on short ovals and road courses. In this package change the main difference will be a “simplified rear diffuser with less strakes”. Phoenix will also feature a new tire that “increases lap-time fall-off” and "keeps more heat in the tires”. Goodyear, the tire maker, hopes to allow for more competitive racing and race strategy.
Strategy
Uses
I would not be worried at all for any drivers with 9-10 uses. For eight uses or less, I would save these drivers: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell.
Picks
With the new package and new tire, I would look more into the practice data from Friday. However, you should not disregard their past phoenix history in the Next-Gen era though. Thus, any data before 2022, you don’t need to consider. With practice data, taking a look at the long-run speed is important. Especially when noticing if a driver has a lot of falloff throughout their run(s) and when they do their run(s) in the session.
Some drivers will only run a handful of laps and pit while others will continue running for twenty, or thirty laps. I will admit practice was interrupted around three times with two spins and one debris caution. With track position being crucial, I would be aware of where drivers qualified and only play one or two drivers starting from 14th on back. With one driver, you stash them in the garage, or two drivers, you put one in the garage and one as a starter. Three drivers from fourteen on back will be very bold and risky with two starters and one garage but could work depending on the drivers. I would not recommend having any more than three drivers beyond that.
Drivers
Tyler Reddick
Last week’s bridesmaid had a decent practice session, and the Toyotas look to be the fastest of all of the manufacturers. While Reddick did spin at the end, he should still be fast and did not show much fall-off. Reddick’s history at Phoenix is hit or miss but has back-to-back third-place finishes in the spring and driver ratings above a hundred. He starts sixth and should be running in the top five most of the day.
William Byron
Byron starts fifth and has a good history here with an average finish of ninth and a driver rating of 106.7. Byron did not show much long-run speed, but it looks like after practice Byron and the team have made the right changes. Byron was really happy in his comments before qualifying and made the second round of qualifying to qualify fifth. If you are worried at the practice times, like me, garage Byron at first or avoid him this week.
Joey Logano
The worst 2023 playoff driver in the points besides Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano looked to have speed this week. Logano had top ten lap averages in the five, ten, fifteen, and twenty lap averages. However, in qualifying, Joey did not set a good lap and will start twenty-third. Joey’s history at Phoenix in the next-gen has been mixed with 2022 being one of the best drivers at Phoenix with a pair of top 10s while in 2023 he did not sniff the top ten at all. Joey Logano has shown the potential to do well at short tracks, so there is a possibility he runs better than where he qualifies. Logano would be the lowest starting driver I would start or garage.
Sleepers
Both RFK drivers are very low-owned and are my main favorites here. Buescher was second in points in the fall and Keselowski almost had a top ten last Spring. RFK starts fourteenth and eighteenth but will have a much faster long-run speed than most. Erik Jones could be a bit misleading, but I can see people taking the risk due to his practice times. Ty Gibbs starts high and is in a Joe Gibbs Racing car. Bubba is showing some long-run speed but starts 22nd. goes on. Michael Mcdowell has a solid car and qualified 9th, maybe he can stay up in the top fifteen.
Fantasy Live Lineup
Fantasy Live Picks Tier
Head-to-Head Matchups
Ryan Blaney vs Ross Chastain
This is the true toss-up here and the rivalry at Phoenix. While last Fall, Blaney walked away with the championship, and Chastain walked away with the win. Both have unloaded alright, but not great based on practice data and qualifying. For me, I would take Blaney since he has shown a bit of speed in the long run and has the best next-gen track history. However, I will not deny that Chastain could beat Blaney like last year and surprise a few people.
Chase Elliott vs Denny Hamlin
While this one could be a toss-up, I like Denny Hamlin’s car better. While Hamlin’s history is nothing to write home about here, Hamlin has shown that if there is one track type he excels at it would be short tracks. Hamlin is top five in averages at intermediate one-mile tracks and the best average on short tracks. Chase Elliott has also found speed in practice so I would not fault you for taking him either, but Hamlin has the better speed and less falloff.
Kyle Busch vs Christopher Bell
RCR and Kyle Busch have no speed here while Bell has shown true speed and pace in practice. Bell was top 5 in all the averages and seems to be the benchmark to see if anyone can beat him. His 13th starting position does not deter me from starting him either. Bell should work his way up into the top three before the race is over.
Ty Gibbs vs Alex Bowman
Bowman’s track history is terrible here and Gibbs has put it on the front row. It seems like Gibbs has figured out his Camry better than Alex Bowman’s Camero here at Phoenix. While he did put it on the front row, I am not as confident in starting him due to his practice speeds and I like him better at road courses and intermediates than short ovals.