Top NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ambetter Health 400, at Atlanta Motor Speedway - Feb 25
Highlighting the top cash and tournament plays, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta, 2-25
The field is set for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400, at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with Michael McDowell and Joey Logano on the front row (again). Therefore, let’s go over the top NASCAR DFS picks, lineup construction, and game theory for tomorrow’s race.
Ambetter Health 400 Cash Game Selections
For the first time in my memory (probably ever) NASCAR has gone from one superspeedway style race straight into another. In years past, the calendar would normally have us going from Daytona to an intermediate track like Fontana, Las Vegas, or the old configuration of Atlanta. However, with this shake up in the schedule, we go straight from one superspeedway race into another.
If you’re new to NASCAR, Atlanta was reconfigured following the 2021 races to make it into a drafting style track. It’s not nearly as long as Daytona (1.54-miles compared to Daytona’s 2.5-mile long layout) but the banking was increased to 28 degrees (from 24 degrees) and the track was oddly narrowed down for kicks and grins.
These changes, along with the Cup Series using the superspeedway engine package, produced a Daytonaesque style racing that still has components of an intermediate thanks to it’s narrow track. It’s a superspeedway because the drivers will race in a pack, drafting off one another, and one wrong move can destroy several cars. However, with the narrowness of the track, it’s not that difficult for a driver to get out front and command the lead for several laps with the aid of the top groove and clean air. With 260 laps on tap, the drivers find themselves content to just ride around single-file and eat up laps until the third segment when racing generally picks up.
This is all to say, for cash game purposes, we return to last week’s method of finding drivers in the rear of the field who have access to place differential. Let me assure those of you who are still dipping your toes into the cold waters of NASCAR DFS - this won’t be the cash game method next week or the week after that. This is just the method we choose when the races can lean towards chaos thanks to drafting and pack racing.
My cash core (as well as my tournament core) for Sunday is Chase Elliott (28), Corey Lajoie (32), and Erik Jones (37). This trio gives you a solid base to work from with drivers who all have access to 20+ place differential. For the final two or three picks (dependent on which site you’re playing), my advice is to go up no further than Christopher Bell in 22nd. Originally, I thought this dividing line would be Brad Keselowski in 24th, but after running the model, Bell ranks out really well for Sunday.
That said, if you reference the RaceSheets, you’ll see that I have most everyone from Ross Chastain (21) and beyond marked as cash viable. For my cash lineup, I’ll start with Keselowski and move down the grid.
Ambetter Health 400 Tournament Game Theory
So… this is where things get tricky this week because the quasi intermediate nature of this track has to be contended with.
If you played the dart board last week, you can take that option off the board. While this race has its elements of chaos, it’s not so wild and over the top that you can expect to just throw six random drivers from say 18th and back (like last week) and hope to win.
Unfortunately, there needs to be a little more game theory for tomorrow.
If you look at these optimals, you’ll notice that these don’t look like those optimals from Daytona. Yes, there tends to be a lot of leftover salary, but it’s not as if these optimals are made up of mostly drivers starting 20th and beyond. Yes, the last race there was nothing but “stack the back” drivers but that was a rain shortened race, and NASCAR called the event after some rain had fallen and the general understanding was that NASCAR would dry the track and restart the event. In the end, NASCAR decided to call the race and the drivers who took the gamble that NASCAR would change its mind were rewarded including JJ Yeley - the only punt play to go optimal in these four races.
Thus, what are we looking for or at? You have some drivers that start in the back half of the field and move forward outscoring their fellow drivers through finishing position points and place differential. However, we have dominators that also end up optimal because they led enough laps to garner a top-six fantasy score. With a clear day ahead of us tomorrow, it’s a good bet that someone who starts out front is going to lead a ton of laps, perhaps even two drivers, and will earn enough fantasy points they outscore a bunch of these drivers who start 15th and beyond.
The issue then is the problem we have at every superspeedway race; what if these drivers wreck, lose a bunch of spots, or just don’t lead? This is where you have to gauge your risk versus reward when it comes to this ilk of drivers. If you want a shot at the top prize, you’re going to have to include these drivers in case they get out front, sit on the lead, and manage to finish in the top five or ten.
If history is a guide, over the span of these four races at “New Atlanta” roughly 207 of the laps led come from drivers starting in the top-12, with 117 of those coming from drivers starting in the first two rows. Thus, if you’re going to play anyone as these high risk/ high reward lap leader options it’s should be Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Todd Gilliland. Due to their proximity to the front, I would also include Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Austin Cindric in that pool as all three demonstrated the willingness to jump out front in this race last year.
February 25th Update
After watching the lap turner that was yesterday’s Xfinity Series race, it feels inevitable that we might see the same on Sunday. In fact, I know it’s more than possible because it’s what happened last year when Logano took command of the race early and the field became content to follow the pied piper until he finally lost the lead (start of the third segment).
In turn, if you miss out on a dominator(s) you won’t have a chance of taking down a tournament. I’m going to set the following rule for my tournament lineups:
Must roster 1-2 of McDowell, Logano, Busch, Larson, Blaney, and or Cindric. If you use my projections, you’ll probably end up with a ton of Michael McDowell in this scenario paired with the chalky place differential options. Just in case McDowell gets stupid and doesn’t choose the top lane on restarts, I would cap his ownership around 35-40% to ensure I get access to Logano. Also, don’t be shocked if you end up with some dual dominator builds; McDowell-Logano, McDowell-Blaney, etc…
After this, if using a lineup builder, I’m just going to let the projections do the rest of the work, and not get too technical by trying to incorporate a set number of drivers from the teens, 20s, or 30s.
If you haven’t already, join myself and the rest of the RaceSheetsDFS family in Discord. I’ll be hosting a Live Before Lock style chat answering your questions for tomorrow’s race.