Top NASCAR DFS Picks for the Cup Series Championship, at Phoenix Raceway, November 10
Highlighting the top cash and tournament plays, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the Cup Series Championship - November 10
The field is set for the Cup Series Championship, at Phoenix Raceway, with Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano on the front row. Therefore, let’s review the top NASCAR DFS picks, lineup construction, and game theory for tomorrow afternoon’s race at Phoenix.
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Lap Leader Expectations
Ever since Phoenix was re-aligned, following the Spring 2018 race, being on the pole has been advantageous to being a top lap leader, especially in the Gen Seven era. In the 12 races since Phoenix’s layout was adjusted, the driver who started on the pole has either led the most (7 times) or second most (3 times) laps in 10 of those events averaging just a hair over 107 laps led per race with an average finish of 4.04!
As per the Generation Seven era, and this iteration of the short-track package, not only does this car lend to creating a wake of dirty air, making it tough for drivers to get up near and pass the driver out front, Phoenix’s pit road had given the driver with the first pit stall an unhealthy advantage as they just had to mash the gas to retain or regain the lead off pit road. To combat this, in true NASCAR fashion, the decision was made this week to extend the yellow line so that it’s more of a race off pit road. This has become a non-factor for us as Byron has the first pit box.
Something else to keep in mind is that in the Generation Seven era of this title event, it hasn’t always been the Championship 4 drivers who are out there leading laps. When the title race was held at Homestead, it was a foregone conclusion that only the final four would be in contention to lead the race, and in the waning laps, the other drivers would slowly drift from the front and let the contenders sort out the championship amongst themselves. However, in 2022 it was non-title driver Ryan Blaney who led 109 laps and in 2023 it was Ross Chastain leading 157 laps en route to victory.
Thus, don’t be shocked if someone who isn’t a title contender, who was also fast in practice (a very strong corollary to performance in these past championship races), ends up stinking the day; i.e. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.
Dominator Tier List:
With all of this in mind, we know the starting range we should be targeting as well as the drivers who were fast in Friday’s 50-minute practice session, have run well at Phoenix in the Gen Seven era, and performed well at tracks categorized as “short/ flat”.
Tier A: Martin Truex Jr. (19%), Joey Logano (19%), William Byron (19%)
Tier B: Kyle Larson (15%), Denny Hamlin (13%),
Tier C: Ryan Blaney (10%), Ross Chastain (8%),
Don’t forget to check out the Phoenix RaceSheets and build dominating lineups for Sunday’s race with all the data and information you’ll need for DFS - free this weekend to celebrate the 2024 season.
Phoenix Cash Selections
Sunday’s cash core is pole-sitter Martin Truex Jr. plus the place differential plays of Michael McDowell (35) and Josh Berry (39). Based on the history of the pole-sitter (mentioned above if you skipped ahead), combined with a car that was fast in both the short and longer runs, we have a driver who should lead the bulk of the first stage at a very digestible $9,000 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel. Yes, clicking Truex will be tough following his letdown performance at Martinsville, but two speeding penalties sunk his day.
McDowell and Berry are place differential plays, both of whom the Model projects to finish their days in the top 15. McDowell ends his tenure at Front Row Motorsports at his best non-drafting or road course track as he crossed the finish line 13-9-8 in his past three visits here. Berry had fairly respectable practice speeds and has finished 16th or better in four of the six races at tracks categorized as short/ flat in 2024.
I’d be looking to add a secondary dominator to my cash lineups and then finalize with a few more place differential plays. For premium subscribers, be sure to check Discord on Sunday as I’ll update my final cash thoughts before lock.
Cash Dominator options not listed: Joey Logano (2), Kyle Larson (4), William Byron (8), Denny Hamlin (14), Ryan Blaney (17)
Cash place differential plays not listed: Noah Gragson (21), Chris Buescher (24), Brad Keselowski (27), Bubba Wallace (29), Todd Gilliland (32), Ryan Preece (33), Daniel Suarez (34), Austin Dillon (36)
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Sunday morning update: after seeing the pit stall assignment, I have swapped the cash core to Blaney-Berry-Preece.
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Phoenix Tournament Selections
This week’s tournament core is Ryan Blaney (17) plus the aforementioned duo of McDowell and Berry. Blaney opened the week as the #1 ranked driver in the RaceSheets model, and he left practice still ranked as the #1 driver. While he’s probably out of the running to be an early lap leader, I expect him to be in the mix toward the second and third stages. With his starting spot, he’ll also get a nice place differential boost making him one of the most attractive drivers on the slate.
For my tournament builds, I’ll be building with a minimum of two dominators and a maximum of three.
Pick a Narrative! Any Narrative: Believe it or not, we have quite a few scenarios floating around that make for fun lineup builds; assuming the Racing Gods decide to participate.
Chase Briscoe (12) and Noah Gragson (21) making the final Cup starts for Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe could be a potential surprise winner, much like he was here in the Spring of 2022 while Gragson could end his day in the top 10.
What if Martin Truex Jr. (1) snaps his winless streak in his final full-time Cup Series race?
What if Kyle Busch (25) keeps his winning-season streak alive by winning tomorrow?
Christopher Bell (7) made his qualms with NASCAR well known on Saturday and would love nothing more than to win and hold an asterisk title over this sport.
Phoenix DraftKings Punt Selections
It’s a tough week for value, especially when we have a plethora of high-priced options we’d like to jam in.
The true cheapies such as JJ Yeley, Chad Finchum, and especially Jeb Burton are all hands-off due to equipment and speed concerns from practice. Yes, they will give you flexibility, but you’re doing so for what could be zero to two points. They could all be parked behind the wall before they might benefit from potential attrition.
The rest of the drivers in the $5900 and under category all practically out-qualified their equipment; Burton (9), Haley (13), Lajoie (20), Hemric (21), and are going to need anomalous results to even be in consideration as your final driver in.
Zane Smith is the only driver that makes sense considering where he starts, combined with his practice speeds, but at $5900 he’s not saving you much salary when you can go up a little and get either Todd Gilliland or McDowell. If you need that salary freed up, I won’t dissuade you from Smith, but the lesson from this section may be to just try your best to avoid this range altogether.