Top NASCAR DFS Picks for the Xfinity 500, at Martinsville Speedway, November 3

Highlighting the top cash and tournament plays, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the Xfinity 500, November 3

The field is set for the Xfinity 500, at Martinsville Speedway, with Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott on the front row. Therefore, let’s review the top NASCAR DFS picks, lineup construction, and game theory for tomorrow afternoon’s race at Martinsville.

A Word About the Tires

With a ticket (actually two) to the championship in Phoenix on the line, NASCAR has decided to add extra flare to this penultimate race of the 2024 season with tires. If you’re still holding out on the banana peels and turtle shells being introduced, give that a few more years.

More precisely, the “option tire” we’ve seen previously at North Wilkesboro and Richmond will be the right-side tire used by Cup teams this weekend. If you’re wondering, no the teams don’t have a secondary right-side tire to choose from when pitting. The only tires they have to pick from, for the right sides, are those “option” tires. For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t dive too deep into driver performance from those two venues as those were asphalt surfaces and this weekend we’re racing on concrete.

Meanwhile, on the left-hand side, NASCAR is using what has been called by Goodyear, its “softest tire ever”. For a thorough yet concise breakdown of this tire quandary check out this week’s work by Dr. Diandra at her site Building Speed.

The story of this weekend will boil down to which teams handle pace and fall off through the life of these different tires. With a 45-minute practice session on Saturday, we’ve gotten a snapshot of who may have the advantage in handling these tires. Perhaps more important than overall rankings in the longer consecutive lap runs will be seeing who loses the least amount of pace over the life of their practice runs.

One final note; back in August three drivers tested the option tire - Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, and Todd Gilliland. Two of these drivers look like they gained knowledge from that test, and the third (Busch) looks like nothing was gained on his end.

Dominator Tier List:

With 500 laps on tap for Sunday, we have a bevy of dominator points to hand out. In the Gen Six era, it was pretty well set in stone that a driver had to start near the front to lead a large swath of laps. While that remains true for the most part, we have seen Gen Seven races like the Fall 2022 and 2023 races, not to mention this past Spring, where a driver who started 11th or worse ended up leading the most or second-most laps. With so many laps and a fast car, it’s not crazy to see that happening again tomorrow.

With this in mind, as well as practice speeds and propensity to lead at Martinsville and other short/ flat venues, the RaceSheets Model suggests this is how we should view the field as potential lap leaders.

Tier A: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron

Tier B: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell

Don’t forget to check out the Martinsville RaceSheets and build dominating lineups for Sunday’s race with all the data and information you’ll need for DFS.

Xfinity 500 Cash Selections

If you were hoping for an easy cash slate, you missed Friday night…

Initially, the easy button move seems to play two of the three of Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, or William Byron. The Model projects all three to lead at least 75 laps on Sunday and finish in the top six. However, we’ve got Ryan Blaney starting 14th and Christopher Bell starting 16th - both are projected to lead and fight for the win. To add an extra wrench or two, we have Tyler Reddick starting 31st and Denny Hamlin starting 37th.

Hamlin should be an auto-pick, but we have questions about his car after he wrecked the back end in practice, not to mention at $11,300 on DraftKings, he could easily score ~60 points and still be an underwhelming pick as several drivers outscore him through dominator points.

As of Saturday afternoon, the only priority play I can make heads or tails of is Chase Elliott based on his practice speeds, propensity to lead at Martinsville, and how he practically needs a win to advance to the final four. Watch for the rest of the core to develop in Discord on Sunday.

Carson Hocevar (27) - When I saw the Model give Hocevar a projected 16th-place finish I had to do a double take, but everything checked out. He ran well here in the Trucks Series, he finished 17th in the Spring race, and his long run speed was only bested by the drivers we’re expecting to compete for the win. Furthermore, he’s finished 17th or better in five of the six races held at short/ flat venues this season.

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Xfinity 500 Tournament Selections

While cash could go several different ways, for tournaments I want to make the duo of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney my core. Elliott should be an early source of dominator points, while I suspect Blaney will be a factor in the final stage. Much like Elliott, Blaney is in such a points hole, that he’ll have to force his way forward if he’s going to sniff the opportunity to defend his title in Phoenix next Sunday.

Joey Logano (12) - Just where exactly is the brain trust of the 22 team? Logano has nothing really to gain by focusing on this weekend, as we would assume the bulk of this week has been on preparing for Phoenix next weekend. If last weekend is any indication, this team is checked out and Logano could be deadweight pulling down a lineup.

However, his practice numbers don’t suggest that they’ve punted this weekend, he barely missed making the second round of qualifying, and even if he’s not dialed in, his Gen Seven numbers at Martinsville suggest he can show up and still turn in a top-10 performance (2-7-2-5-6). At $9800 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel, he’s going to be a hard pill to swallow for most DFS players, making him a very intriguing low-owned potential dominator.

Xfinity 500 Punt Selections

We begin the salary saving with Zane Smith starting 36th. At $5800, he’s not necessarily a salary saver, but starting one spot short of dead last does make him intriguing for cash and tournament purposes. The only fear with Smith is that he gets stuck in traffic and becomes one of the first lap-down casualties on the day. The good news for Smith is his long-run speed was respectable, so as long as he can make some moves early on, he should have the speed to pick up spots during a green flag run.

The next man up is Justin Haley starting 30th. Haley had slightly better practice numbers (8th in the consecutive 25-lap run, 7th in the consecutive 30-lap run) than Smith, but once again if he can’t make hay early then he could be a lap down within the first pit cycle.

This weekend’s galaxy brain move is to go all the way up the grid to Daniel Hemric starting 15th. With his starting position, he should be well insulated from getting lapped early, and if he can use this track position to his advantage, he could easily outscore everyone else in this range with finishing position points. Reader beware, his practice numbers were atrocious (30th or worse in every category he ran), and if he has an issue on pit road or the track that costs him positions, this play could immediately be a dead duck in the water.